Dead-predictions ledger — 12 refuted author predictions

Twelve affirmative refutations, from the v1 TFT prediction (predicted >50% cooperation; observed 0.02) through the Phase 3 shadow-of-the-future and RPS bands, the paraphrase-robustness flip (0.000 → 1.000), two sign reversals in Phase 4, and the two consequential Phase 5 failures: P5-2 (predicted task-dominant; verdict persona-dominant) and P5-3 (predicted zero of sixteen personas pass; 16/16 passed). Those two selected the sealed Branch 2 discussion and inverted the reading of Phases 3–4: corner behavior characterizes the bare configuration, not the model’s capability envelope. The post-adjudication p13 downgrade is an inferential correction and deliberately not counted here.