Provenance
Manuscript genealogy — v1 to the canonical release
Fifteen versions, each prompted by a named review round; earlier drafts preserved byte-exact, never rewritten.
The title itself records the corrections: “Empirical Deviations from Nash Equilibrium…” (v1) → “Passing Marginal Checks Can Be Cheap… Weak Incentive Response” (v2) → adding “Coarse” (v3) → “Persona Mixtures and Imprecise Incentive-Response Estimates” (v5–v7) → “Treatment-Response” (v8, final). The v10 scientific text freeze is externally timestamped; v11 is its first declared addendum.
| Version | Status | What changed |
|---|---|---|
| v1 — the refuted prototype paper | Superseded | “Empirical Deviations from Nash Equilibrium in Classic Game Theory Games” — 40 experiments, 11 claims, all initially called supported. |
| v2 — first corrected draft | Superseded | “Passing Marginal Checks Can Be Cheap: Persona Mixtures and Weak Incentive Response…” — p13 demoted from confirmatory to suggestive (family p = 0.0525 ± 0.0050), δ-matched and fivefold comparator language retired, and a 17-row v1→v2 correction ledger appended. |
| v3 — the registered reanalysis queue | Superseded | Adds “Coarse” to the title, retires the “Level-Matching Is Cheap” hook, and registers the A.7 queue of five zero-call reanalyses with precommitted reporting rules — the blueprint for the submission analyses. |
| v4–v5 — verification and readiness | Superseded | v4 was verified by the Round 3 anonymous clone; v5 adopted its corrections (all three family constructions reported, registration language scoped to confirmatory claims, reviewer-role disclosure, drafts committed to history, five contributions cut to three) and was declared “ready for full scientific review” by Round 4.. |
| v6 — first Explore Science PDF | Superseded | The first formatted review PDF (14 pages), scored 92/100 Platinum with 13 minor issues.. |
| v7 — the Round 5 integration | Superseded | Integrates all thirteen Explore Science issues: the five-stage architecture table, protocol glossary, X2 operational definition, corrected Figures 1 and 5, represented-treatment language, and the corrected p13 power statement. |
| v8 — treatment-response retitle | Superseded | Eleven Round 6 recommendations, including the title change from “incentive-response” to “treatment-response” and the p≈0.075 attainability boundary added to Figure 5. |
| v9 — freeze candidate | Superseded | The text-freeze candidate: archived-panel vs latent-propensity separation, “cheap” defined as evidentiary economy, count reconciliation integrated. |
| v10 — the scientific text freeze | Sealed record | The frozen scientific text (21 pages, tag paper-text-freeze-v10, OpenTimestamps-anchored). |
| v11 — the post-freeze addendum | Superseded | Adds the fixed-panel Dirichlet–Jeffreys latent-propensity sensitivity — the uncertainty view that turned “85–96% dominant” into “63–71% medians, prior-dependent dominance” — as an explicit, declared addendum to the frozen v10 (22 pages; margin line numbers removed).. |
| v12 — near-arXiv preprint | Superseded | Extends the replay perimeter to all of Phase 3 (320 runs + 20 baselines), adds the independent bootstrap-coincidence audit, full leaning-strata table, matched-lattice entropy reanalysis, and decoding audit; the abstract leads with the latent-propensity posterior. |
| v13 — dependence-aware candidate | Superseded | Adds the global-multiplicity limitation, provider-failure accounting, P5-2 prompt-cluster bootstrap and Dirichlet–Jeffreys sensitivities, and interval-bearing Figure 3. |
| v14 — arXiv candidate | Superseded | Fixes the three Round 12 release blockers and incorporates the Round 14 middle-path restorations and precision corrections. |
| Final — canonical release | Final | The canonical 19-page, five-figure release: PDF, byte-identical Markdown, and minimal PDFLaTeX arXiv package, all SHA-256-pinned, independently recompiled and page-image-compared in CI, OpenTimestamps-anchored, and published with the project site on 2026-08-01 (PR #13).. |
Historical PDFs and hash manifests live in docs/paper/; exact v2/v3 sources in docs/paper/history/. v4/v5 exist as verified states of the working draft rather than separate files; the v9 PDF survives as its recorded hash in the Round 8 review.