Synthetic Players

ClaimRegistered · verdict pass

P3-A3 / broad marginal checks — 3 of 4 cells in band

Registered broad-reference cooperation band [0.36, 0.63]; sole miss 0.011 below the lower bound.

Registered before Phase 3 data · band inherited by the Phase 5 panel cells · Paper §4.1

The preregistered broad-reference cooperation band was [0.36, 0.63]. Phase 5 repeated-game pool means were 0.349, 0.427, 0.432, 0.505; only the S2-absent δ=.10 cell fell outside — by 0.011 below the lower boundary. The panel therefore “passed coarse marginal checks” in three of four repeated-game cells.

Why passing is cheap

Proposition A (paper §4.3): accepting condition means within tolerances ε₀, ε₁ only bounds the aggregate contrast by ε₀+ε₁. The band’s slack is exactly where the imprecisely estimated treatment response lives — the checks could be passed without precisely estimating the response object they might be taken to validate.