Synthetic Players

ClaimMethod-sensitive

P5-1a — corner-mixture predicate

Registered support condition passes under 2 of 3 census methods: 3/32, 2/32, 5/32 interior.

Registered before Phase 5 data · frozen seat-level rule · threshold: interior fraction < 0.10

P5-1a fires when the interior fraction in the exact-bare-twin restricted set (rep-d90-s2a and os-swap; 32 persona-condition units) is below 0.10 under the frozen seat-level rule. The census is method-sensitive:

Census methodRestricted (of 32)Unrestricted (of 96)Predicate would support
Historical seat-level rule3 interior14 interioryes
Conservative exact episode projection2 interior11 interioryes
Dirichlet–Jeffreys sensitivity5 interior19 interiorno

At n=6 with a three-valued outcome, modest interval-width differences move cells across the threshold. The continuous composition estimates are primary; the binary census is a worked example of why certification language should be used sparingly (paper §5.1).