ClaimMethod-sensitive
P5-1a — corner-mixture predicate
Registered support condition passes under 2 of 3 census methods: 3/32, 2/32, 5/32 interior.
P5-1a fires when the interior fraction in the exact-bare-twin restricted set (rep-d90-s2a and os-swap; 32 persona-condition units) is below 0.10 under the frozen seat-level rule. The census is method-sensitive:
| Census method | Restricted (of 32) | Unrestricted (of 96) | Predicate would support |
|---|---|---|---|
| Historical seat-level rule | 3 interior | 14 interior | yes |
| Conservative exact episode projection | 2 interior | 11 interior | yes |
| Dirichlet–Jeffreys sensitivity | 5 interior | 19 interior | no |
At n=6 with a three-valued outcome, modest interval-width differences move cells across the threshold. The continuous composition estimates are primary; the binary census is a worked example of why certification language should be used sparingly (paper §5.1).