ClaimRegistered · mixed record
P5-2 — persona-direction vs task-text classification
Pooled 45/352 = 0.128 task-consistent; historical verdict preserved; Bayesian proximity to 0.20 is prior-dependent.
P5-2 pools registered conflict cells and classifies whether choices follow task text or persona-conditioned direction. The pooled task-consistent share is 90/704 seat decisions across 352 episodes — 45/352 = 0.128 on episode means. The prompt-cluster bootstrap (principal dependence-aware sensitivity) gives [0.071, 0.189].
Prior sensitivity of the Bayesian aggregation
| symmetric α | posterior median | 95% interval | P(θ ≤ .20) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.10 | 0.138 | [0.124, 0.153] | 1.000 |
| 0.25 | 0.152 | [0.135, 0.171] | >0.999 |
| 0.50 | 0.172 | [0.152, 0.195] | 0.991 |
| 1.00 | 0.205 | [0.182, 0.231] | 0.329 |
The α=1 posterior crosses the registered 0.20 boundary, so proximity to the boundary is prior-dependent rather than an independent signal. Every repeated conflict subcell is mixed; only the swap cell is individually persona-dominant — the pooled classification is mechanism-confounded and carried by the word/payoff-confounded swap cell.