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RPS role-attached asymmetry — registered direction reversed
First-minus-rock contrast −0.181 (prediction was positive); Gemini mirror +0.243. Vendor-specific asymmetry.
After RPS moves were renamed with neutral symbols and display order exactly counterbalanced, the registered GPT-4.1 first-minus-rock contrast was −0.181: the preregistered positive-direction hypothesis was not supported and the observed direction reversed. A support-only Dirichlet analysis assigned probability 0.0001 to first-only selection exceeding rock-only selection. The cross-vendor mirror had the opposite sign, +0.243 (one-sided lower bound +0.139).
Descriptive evidence of vendor-specific, role-attached asymmetry in a formally symmetric game — not a universal “rock bias.” The wrong-sided interval originally attached to this result was removed in the Round 14 precision pass.