Figure 1 — Between-prompt share of episode-level variation

The Jeffreys fixed-panel posterior propagates uncertainty in six-episode prompt cells (medians 63.1%–70.5%); plug-in/conditional-bootstrap estimates describe the archived concentration more literally (85.5%–96.1%). A symmetric-prior sweep shows the stronger “share above one-half” reading is prior-dependent: α=0.25 medians 74.8%–82.5%, α=1 medians 47.1%–53.5%.