DD-015
Dynamic Attention and Visible Search
Verified full-credit equilibrium and exact dynamic census with a bounded visibility-herding negative result.
Active researchChecked evidence
The question
When prior actions reveal likely use of a shared clue, when should later agents search against the public action and how do private and social incentives differ?
What we found
- DD-C-0079: In the frozen DD-015 autonomous game, choosing a posterior-mode action at every reached information set is a pure sequential Bayesian equilibrium under full duplicate credit.
- DD-C-0080: Across DD-015's 64 exact objective rows, the common-payoff planner strictly exceeds the full-credit autonomous equilibrium in 38 rows, autonomous play follows a previous action with positive probability in 32 rows and leans against a repeated prior action with positive probability in 50 rows, and stopping reduces expected actions relative to fixed budget in all 32 parameter cells.
- DD-C-0081: In DD-015's 32 fixed-budget parameter cells, visible-action inference improves neither discovery nor expected action dispersion relative to the history-hidden Bayes baseline; it strictly reduces both in 18 cells and ties in the remaining 14.
- DD-C-0082: In DD-015's separately labeled threshold-two planner extension, stopping preserves the fixed-budget optimal discovery value and strictly reduces expected actions in all 16 parameter cells; across all 32 objective rows the optimal policy uses, with positive probability, each of starting a singleton, joining a singleton, joining a viable team, following the shared clue, and opposing it.
What this result covers
Checked evidence. The formal evidence wording and registry state remain available below.
Technical details
- Study phase
active-extension- Registry status
complete-bounded-study- Evidence status
verified-proposition-exact-censuses-and-bounded-negative-result
Reproducible evidence
20260722T043713Z_DD-015_92d53ac1_0e7cf1ec0a20260722T044453Z_DD-015_34bc4379_33e1da478b
Files and data
What comes next
preserve both immutable configurations and their planner-versus-equilibrium boundary; continue Program V4 sequentially with DD-018